Finance & Demand

Business Archetypes

Understanding the size, diversity and business models of vaccine manufacturers is key to assessing progress toward sustainable regionalized vaccine manufacturing.

However, many regional vaccine manufacturers are still not operating at the scale needed to keep costs low. Most manufacturers are small and focused on national demand. Only two in ASEAN and LAC – PT Bio Farma and Bio-Manguinhos respectively - operate end-to-end on a larger scale and export, with wider vaccine portfolios and higher output. Africa, in contrast, is at an earlier stage, with no manufacturers reaching a similar scale.

As countries rely more on regional supply, they will need to balance affordability with long-term sustainability, recognizing that prices may be higher at first but should improve as production scales up and becomes more efficient.

Regional scale (volume)

Tracking regional scale by volume shows how much regional vaccine demand is met by regional production - an important indicator of progress toward a more self-sufficient supply.

However, the data suggest that regional production still meets only a limited share of regional demand, although this is higher in LAC (29%) and ASEAN (25%) than in Africa (1%).

To fully understand the picture, more information is needed on how far manufacturers can supply beyond their home countries, to assess whether regional production can meet demand at a broader regional level, not just within individual countries, and how this is affected by factors such as regulatory barriers, capacity constraints and access to raw materials.

Regional priority vaccine coverage

The data highlights clear differences across regions. Manufacturers in LAC and ASEAN produce many of their priority vaccines, while in Africa, only one is currently made locally. To close this gap, regions will need to expand the range of vaccines they produce. This will require targeted and coordinated investment aligned with priorities.

For diseases that are a shared priority across regions and where at least one region has vaccine manufacturing capabilities, there could be an opportunity to partner, for example, on technology transfer. For shared priority diseases where no regional manufacturing capabilities currently exist, inter-regional collaboration could provide an opportunity to address vaccine production collectively as a shared challenge.

Sustainable demand

Manufacturers need steady, predictable demand to invest and grow. Without it, financial risks stay high and long-term expansion is difficult. Reliable health budgets play a key role in creating this demand.

The data show that government spending per surviving infant has increased across all regions in recent years. While this rise may partly reflect COVID-19 response spending and product-specific pricing dynamics shaped by procurement mechanisms, country-income levels, and market conditions, it may also suggest that governments are allocating greater resources to immunization.

Nonetheless, to support regionalized vaccine manufacturing, higher spending needs to translate into more predictable demand for regionally produced vaccines. Clearer budget commitments and better-coordinated procurement will help create more stable markets. At the same time, improved data on how much countries fund their own immunization programs compared will be important for assessing long-term sustainability.

Premium vs. Lowest Available Prices

Examining vaccine pricing and procurement helps assess whether regionalized vaccine manufacturing can be both affordable and sustainable.

The data suggest that vaccines from regional manufacturers can be more expensive than those purchased through larger pooled mechanisms like PAHO's Revolving Fund, though this is based on limited data. While such mechanisms exist in Latin America, similar systems are not yet in place in Africa and ASEAN. At the same time, global channels such as the UNICEF Supply Division continue to provide access to lower-priced vaccines.

Regional efforts to expand and strengthen pooled procurement are ongoing. However, it is not a complete solution – rather, an important tool. When designed well, it can reduce prices while also encouraging the purchase of regionally produced vaccines - helping to align supply with demand, improve market stability, and support the long-term growth of regionalized vaccine manufacturing.

Announced investment in manufacturing

Building a strong regional vaccine manufacturing ecosystem requires significant funding. The level and source of this funding signals the strength of political commitment - whether driven by short-term momentum, such as post-COVID donor support, or by sustained domestic or private financing that underpins long-term sustainability.

The data shows that substantial funding has been announced in recent years, with the largest share directed toward Africa. However, the sources of this funding differ by region, ranging from donor-led investments in Africa to a mix of public funding in LAC and a stronger role for private investors in ASEAN.

What's less clear is how much of this funding has been delivered and used to expand capacity and strengthen capabilities. To move forward, greater transparency on how funds are disbursed and spent will be essential. This will help track progress, build confidence, and ensure investments are translating into real impact.