There is no single financing solution for regionalized vaccine manufacturing. Instead, capital is more likely to deliver lasting impact when it is matched to the risks projects face and connected to a credible, funded path to market.
Over recent months, financing has become a growing focus in our engagement with manufacturers, financial institutions, procurers, and country and regional partners. We are still at an early stage in developing our understanding of this area. Nevertheless, several areas are emerging that we believe would benefit from further discussion and examination.
Availability of financing
Developing stronger regional vaccine manufacturing ecosystems requires significant and sustained financing. Between 2022 and 2024, an average of USD 1.177 billion in investments was announced across Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and ASEAN, with the largest share directed towards Africa.
The sources of this financing appear to differ across regions, from a prominent role for donor financing in Africa to a mix of public financing in Latin America and the Caribbean and greater private-sector participation in ASEAN.
It is less clear how much of this announced financing has been delivered, how it has been used, and to what extent it has translated into stronger manufacturing capacity, capabilities and ultimately access to vaccines. This raises the question of whether financing is supporting projects that can progress from investment to production and regulatory approval, and ultimately reach a funded market, while addressing the risks that arise along the way.
Supply-side investment and funded demand are closely linked
From early discussions, a credible route to market is central. Supply-side investment can help manufacturers build facilities, access technology, and develop capabilities, but its longer-term impact may be limited where demand remains uncertain or procurement pathways are unclear. This suggests that investment in manufacturing capacity may need to be considered alongside the financing and purchasing arrangements that can sustain its use over time.
There is also a wider question about how individual domestic projects fit within the regional landscape. A more informed discussion of public-health priorities, together with clearer signals about country and manufacturer plans, could help identify where capabilities may be complementary, where viable market opportunities may exist, and how proposed investments could contribute to both sustainability and regional health needs.
The mix and sequence of capital may matter
Vaccine manufacturing projects face different types of risk as they progress. Early stages may involve feasibility assessment, access to technology, process development, and project preparation, and may benefit from grants, technical assistance, or seed funding. As projects move towards commercial viability, concessional finance, guarantees, patient capital, and other de-risking mechanisms may help absorb risks that commercial investors are not yet willing to take. More mature projects may be better positioned to attract development finance, equity, commercial debt, or other forms of private investment.
The question may therefore be not only which instrument is suitable at a particular moment, but how different forms of capital could be sequenced, which risks each is intended to absorb, and what evidence or milestones might allow a project to progress from one stage to the next. The appropriate mix is also unlikely to be identical across regions, with Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America and the Caribbean differing in manufacturing maturity.
What RVMC will explore next
Over the coming months, RVMC intends to examine supply-side and demand-side financing in greater detail with partners that bring deeper operational and financial expertise. This will include manufacturers, financial and procurement institutions, and country and regional partners.
We aim to learn more about how financiers and manufacturers assess commercial sustainability and public value; where existing instruments align - or do not align - with risks across the project lifecycle; what may make demand sufficiently credible to support investment; how different forms of capital could be sequenced over the long timelines required for vaccine manufacturing, which often extend beyond government and institutional budget cycles; and how supply-side investment and funded demand might be considered together without assuming that a single model will apply across regions.
RVMC does not finance, select, or manage individual manufacturing projects. Our role in this area is still developing. Our contribution is to bring different financing perspectives together, identify questions that merit further examination, and support a more informed discussion about how financing might contribute to sustainable regional manufacturing capacity.